Ryan Paterson

We hold a constructive outlook on global equities. While US payroll data has softened, broader employment indicators remain stable. The Federal Reserve's more dovish stance has led to a repricing of rate expectations, resulting in lower real yields. Combined with solid corporate earnings and supportive fiscal policy, this creates a favourable backdrop for equities—particularly in the US and Emerging Markets. We remain cautious on duration, as recent rallies have pushed US Treasury valuations into expensive territory, with inflation risks still underappreciated. Credit remains neutral; valuations are stretched, especially in US investment grade, but technical support persists. Commodity demand is weak, though we continue to favour gold for its defensive qualities. We also retain a negative outlook on the US dollar, reflecting medium-term fiscal concerns.

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