Robin Perry

We think concerns over the impact of tariffs have been a little overdone and we expect global growth to be around 3% over the next couple of years, led by Asia and the US. We also believe that inflationary pressures will remain relatively comfortable, allowing central banks to adjust rates as appropriate to support economic growth. As such, we think the macroeconomic environment remains supportive for risk assets. Looking at equity markets, we have seen corporate earnings estimates pared back since the beginning of the year however earnings growth expectations remain comfortably in double figures globally looking into 2026/7 and, on that basis, we think current equity valuations look reasonable. We also believe that US rates may come down slightly less than the market is expecting, while UK rates may come down slightly more as the economy continues to struggle. This should support some recovery in the US dollar versus sterling and also suggests that UK gilts are currently attractive.

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